DB Investing

Author: Mostafa

  • Global Market Shifts: Gold Drops, Currencies Slip, Oil Supply Rises

    Global Market Shifts: Gold Drops, Currencies Slip, Oil Supply Rises

    Key Drivers: Trade Talks, Interest Rates, and OPEC Decisions

    Gold and Safe-Haven Assets Decline

    • Global gold prices fell on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled progress on several trade agreements.
    • Trump extended tariff exemptions for multiple countries, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
    • Trump confirmed on Sunday that higher tariffs may be imposed starting August 1, after previously delaying their implementation.

    Currency Market Reactions and Interest Rate Outlook

    • European stocks showed mixed performance amid uncertainty around the trade deadlines.
    • Fears of inflation from tariffs lowered expectations for aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
    • The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.2% in Asian trading, with futures down 0.1%.
    • The Australian dollar fell for the third consecutive session, with markets widely expecting a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

    Oil Market Developments and OPEC+ Decisions

    • Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August.
    • This increase surpasses the May-July monthly additions of 411,000 barrels per day.
    • OPEC+ warned of a potential further increase in September, signaling a continued easing of the voluntary production cuts.
    • The decision pressures oil prices amid growing supply concerns.

    Conclusion:

    Global markets are currently driven by shifting trade policies, uncertain monetary strategies, and aggressive oil production increases. Investors are advised to stay alert to upcoming key dates and policy changes that could reshape market trends in the coming weeks.

  • Gold Holds Steady as U.S. Jobs Data Approaches

    Gold Holds Steady as U.S. Jobs Data Approaches

    Gold, Oil, Crypto, and Global Market Developments

    Gold Holds Steady Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

    Gold prices remained stable in Asian trading on Thursday after three consecutive days of gains, as investors exercised caution ahead of key U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

    Gold was supported by concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by the Republican push to advance President Trump’s broad tax cut bill. Additionally, uncertainty over U.S. trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline helped sustain market interest in gold.

    Investors now await the NFP report due later Thursday for more clarity on the Fed’s interest rate path.
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent cautious remarks were viewed as conservative, though he did not rule out a potential rate cut in the upcoming months.

    While a rate cut in September is widely expected, recent soft inflation readings and signs of U.S. economic slowdown have raised the chances of an earlier and deeper easing cycle.

    Trump’s repeated threats to replace Powell and his calls for immediate rate cuts have further fueled speculation of aggressive policy shifts.

    Gold prices this week have been supported by expectations of lower rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.

    Currency and Dollar Trends

    Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges on Thursday amid cautious optimism over potential trade progress with the U.S. Weak economic data from China and Australia also weighed on sentiment.

    The U.S. dollar held steady, with markets closely watching the progress of the U.S. tax and spending bill, which was scheduled for a House vote.

    The greenback faces a key test from the upcoming U.S. employment report, which is expected to influence the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.

    Oil Market Insights

    U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.85 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 3.5 million barrel draw, according to government data released on Wednesday.

    Gasoline inventories also surged by 4.19 million barrels, raising concerns about summer fuel demand strength.

    Attention now shifts to the June NFP report, which is likely to offer additional insight into U.S. economic momentum and fuel consumption trends.

    Markets remain watchful of the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, as only limited trade agreements have been secured so far.

    OPEC+ is set to meet over the weekend, with the group expected to approve a 411,000 barrel per day production increase in August.
    This planned increase continues OPEC’s gradual move to unwind two years of heavy output cuts.

    The decision also aligns with President Trump’s ongoing calls for both OPEC and U.S. producers to raise output to keep prices in check.

    Crypto Market Movements

    Cryptocurrency prices, including Bitcoin, recovered some ground after a weak June.

    Bitcoin’s rebound was supported by improved market sentiment following a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, the third such agreement by Washington ahead of the July 9 deadline.

    Markets also welcomed the U.S. decision to ease some restrictions on chip technology exports to China after both countries reached a trade framework in June.

    Optimism grew over the potential for additional U.S. trade deals in the coming days. Officials indicated that an agreement with India is nearing, though talks with Japan and South Korea have stalled.

    President Trump confirmed he does not plan to extend the July 9 deadline for imposing sharp tariffs on key trade partners.

    📌 Conclusion

    The markets are currently driven by caution as investors await the U.S. jobs report, monitor trade negotiations, track oil production adjustments, and watch crypto market rebounds.
    These developments will be pivotal in shaping the next wave of trends across global commodities, currencies, and crypto assets.

  • Breaking: Initial Employment Report Signals Weakness in U.S. Labor Market

    Breaking: Initial Employment Report Signals Weakness in U.S. Labor Market

    Private Sector Jobs Decline Unexpectedly in June

    Private sector employment in the United States fell by 33,000 jobs in June, significantly missing expectations of a 99,000 increase. This sharp miss highlights employer caution and worker reluctance to switch jobs amid growing uncertainty linked to US tariffs.

    Revised May Figures

    May’s employment data was also revised down to 29,000 jobs added, from the previously reported 37,000 — the smallest increase since March 2023.

    Sector Performance

    The ADP report, released on Wednesday, showed that the losses were concentrated in:

    • Professional and business services: down 56,000 jobs
    • Education and healthcare: down 52,000 jobs
    • Financial activities: down 14,000 jobs

    On the positive side, gains in leisure, hospitality, manufacturing, and mining helped limit the overall decline:

    • Goods-producing industries added 32,000 jobs
    • Total service-sector jobs fell by 66,000 jobs

    Wage Growth Trends

    Despite the hiring slowdown, layoffs remain rare, according to ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson.
    She emphasized that the cooling in employment has not yet disrupted wage growth.

    Annual wage increases for workers staying in their current jobs remained steady. Job switchers saw a wage growth of 6.8% in June, slightly lower than the previous 7%.

    Broader Labor Market Outlook

    ADP’s figures typically don’t directly align with the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is more closely watched by markets and is due Thursday.
    Economists project the NFP report to show an addition of 110,000 to 120,000 jobs in June, with unemployment potentially rising to 4.3% from 4.2%.

    Weekly jobless claims are also set to be released Thursday, expected to reach 240,000 new applications.
    This data comes in a shortened trading week due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 4, with markets closing early on Thursday and fully closed on Friday.

    Federal Reserve’s Approach

    The Federal Reserve continues to focus on maximum employment and inflation control.
    Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see stance on future interest rate changes, waiting for more clarity on the broader economic impact of the tariffs.
    While Powell did not dismiss the possibility of a rate cut this year, he emphasized the need for patience.

    📌 Conclusion

    The unexpected drop in private sector jobs signals potential weaknesses in the US labor market, although wage growth remains stable.
    All eyes now turn to Thursday’s official jobs report for confirmation of whether this is a short-term hiccup or a deeper labor market shift.

  • Gold Holds Steady as Focus Shifts to US Jobs Data

    Gold Holds Steady as Focus Shifts to US Jobs Data

    Gold Steady Amid Investor Focus on Labor Data and Fed Policy

    Gold prices stabilized on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of US employment data, while assessing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. The weaker dollar supported the dollar-priced gold.

    Powell reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve plans to “wait and learn more” about the impact of tariffs on inflation before deciding on rate cuts, once again ignoring President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for a quick and significant rate reduction.

    Recent data showed that US job openings unexpectedly rose in May, while hiring slowed, indicating a cooling labor market amid the uncertainty caused by Trump’s imposed tariffs.

    Investors now shift their attention to the upcoming private sector employment data later today, along with non-farm payroll figures and jobless claims on Thursday, to gather further insights into the health of the US labor market.

    Political Scene:

    Republicans in the US Senate narrowly passed President Trump’s tax and spending bill on Tuesday. The law includes tax cuts, reductions in social safety net programs, and increased military spending, adding $3.3 trillion to the US national debt.

    Trump also expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with India but remained skeptical about a similar agreement with Japan, stating he is not considering extending the July 9 deadline for countries to finalize trade deals.

    Currency Movements:

    The Japanese yen weakened in Asian markets on Wednesday against major and minor currencies, pulling back from a four-week high versus the US dollar. This decline came as a result of profit-taking.

    The US dollar held above its three-year low, supported by the recent rise in US job openings in May, while investors await further key labor market data.

    Expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July decreased following the central bank’s recent meeting. Markets are awaiting more data on inflation, wages, and unemployment in Japan.

    Currently, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July remains below 40%. Investors are awaiting further economic data to reassess those odds.

    European Market:

    The euro fell in European markets on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, pulling back from a four-year high against the US dollar, as profit-taking and market corrections took place.

    The US dollar held steady above its three-year low, supported by the unexpected rise in job openings.

    European inflation data released this week raised doubts about the European Central Bank’s ability to cut rates in July. Markets are closely monitoring ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech later today at the Central Banks Forum in Sintra, Portugal.

    Currently, the market is pricing a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB in July.

    US stock futures showed little change Tuesday evening after Wall Street closed mixed, with tech stocks leading losses. Trump’s tax bill was narrowly passed in the Senate.

    This cautious market movement reflects investor hesitancy ahead of Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, which could trigger renewed trade escalations.

    Meanwhile, investors evaluated Powell’s new comments regarding interest rates, amid his growing public disagreement with Trump over the Fed’s resistance to a rapid rate cut.

    Conclusion:

    Investors remain highly focused on upcoming US labor data and global inflation figures, which are set to shape central bank policies and market direction in the coming weeks.

  • Breaking News: European Inflation Hits ECB Target!

    Breaking News: European Inflation Hits ECB Target!

    Fresh CPI Data Suggests Possible Pause in Rate Cuts

    European Consumer Price Index (CPI) Just Released!

    Consumer prices in the Eurozone slightly increased in June, bringing inflation exactly to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target and potentially signaling a pause in the recent cycle of interest rate cuts.

    The CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year last month, hitting the ECB’s precise inflation goal and slightly accelerating from 1.9% in May, in line with analyst expectations.

    On a monthly basis, inflation grew by 0.3%, recovering from a flat reading the previous month.

    When excluding volatile items such as food and energy, core inflation held steady at 2.3% for the twelve months ending in June.

    ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus stated earlier today via Bloomberg that inflation is now aligned with the central bank’s target, but uncertainty still looms due to persistent volatility in foreign exchange and commodity markets.

    Speaking at the ECB’s annual meeting in Sintra, Portugal, Simkus warned that the current inflation path is not guaranteed to hold.

    Despite the current inflation stability, the recent rise of the euro against the U.S. dollar and increasing energy prices—fueled in part by Middle East tensions—could push inflation higher in the coming months.

    The euro recently reached 1.1808 against the U.S. dollar, its highest level since September 2021.

    Last month, the ECB delivered its eighth interest rate cut within a year, but indicated that a pause is likely at the next meeting, especially in light of growing concerns about trade tensions with the United States.

    Conclusion:

    Today’s CPI release may give the ECB breathing room to pause its aggressive rate cuts. However, with rising energy costs and currency fluctuations, the road ahead remains uncertain. The markets now await the ECB’s next move.

  • Gold Rises Amid Dollar Weakness and Tariff Uncertainty

    Gold Rises Amid Dollar Weakness and Tariff Uncertainty

    Markets React to Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and Ongoing Trade Talks

    Gold prices recorded a significant rise during Tuesday’s trading session, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and growing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies as the July 9th deadline approaches. This uncertainty drove investors towards safe-haven assets.

    The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in more than three years, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies.

    On Monday, Trump expressed his frustration with the pace of trade negotiations with Japan, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned that some countries might face steep tariff increases.

    It is noteworthy that the announced tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%, which were introduced on April 2, are set to take effect on July 9 after a 90-day postponement, unless bilateral trade agreements are reached.

    At the same time, Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve on Monday to ease monetary policy. He sent Fed Chair Jerome Powell a list of global central bank interest rates, with handwritten notes suggesting that “U.S. interest rates should be between 0.5% as in Japan and 1.75% as in Denmark.”

    Meanwhile, investors are closely watching a series of U.S. labor market reports this week, shortened due to holidays, culminating in Thursday’s release of official employment data, expected to offer clearer signals on the Fed’s policy direction.

    In Europe, the euro rose on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, extending gains for the ninth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar, trading above the $1.17 mark for the first time since 2021. This came amid strong demand for the euro as the best alternative investment to the weakening dollar.

    These movements were fueled by renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence and monetary stability in the U.S. following another attack by President Trump on Jerome Powell.

    Expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in July have recently declined. Investors are now awaiting key Eurozone inflation data for June, which will help reassess those expectations.

    ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that with the recent cut and the current interest rate levels, “we are likely nearing the end of the easing cycle.”

    According to Reuters sources, a clear majority in the ECB’s latest meeting preferred keeping interest rates unchanged in July, with some advocating for an extended pause.

    Money markets have scaled back their expectations of an ECB rate cut, now pricing in only a 25-basis-point cut by year-end, down from 30 basis points previously.

    If today’s Eurozone inflation data comes in hotter than expected, the likelihood of rate cuts in the second half of the year may diminish, supporting the euro’s continued rise in the foreign exchange market.

    Meanwhile, oil prices dropped to a three-week low on Tuesday, reaching levels not seen since before the recent Israel-Iran tensions. The decline was driven by easing supply concerns and expectations of increased OPEC+ production.

    Focus now turns to OPEC+’s upcoming meeting later this week, where the group is expected to continue unwinding two years of production cuts.

    Reuters reported last week that OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July.

    This will bring OPEC+’s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million barrels per day, although this remains below the total cuts implemented over the past two years.

    The August production hike is likely to signal further increases from OPEC+, partially aimed at countering prolonged weakness in oil prices.

    Additionally, major OPEC+ producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are seeking to penalize overproducing members within the cartel by maintaining lower oil prices.

    Conclusion:

    The global markets are currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by U.S. tariff policies, central bank pressures, European inflation dynamics, and OPEC+ production decisions. Investors should remain vigilant, as upcoming economic reports and policy shifts could reshape market trajectories in the coming weeks.

  • Gold Rises on Weak Dollar Amid Eased Geopolitical Tensions

    Gold Rises on Weak Dollar Amid Eased Geopolitical Tensions

    Trade Deals and Fed Speculations Shape Market Trends

    Gold prices climbed from a one-month low during Asian trading on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar. However, safe-haven demand remained limited as Middle East tensions eased and optimism grew over potential U.S. trade deals.

    A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump last week, significantly reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, decreasing gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

    On the trade front, the U.S.-China agreement signed last week in Geneva, which resolved disputes over rare earth shipments and eased a key trade friction, further boosted positive market sentiment.

    Additionally, the U.S.-UK trade agreement came into effect on Monday, reducing car tariffs to 10% and eliminating tariffs on aircraft parts entirely.

    However, a looming July 9 deadline threatens the potential re-imposition of tariffs on other trading partners, including global steel and aluminum tariffs.

    Gold also found support as the U.S. dollar weakened, driven by rising market bets on at least one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by September.

    Most Asian currencies gained on Monday after data showed improvement in China’s business activity, while the dollar fell amid growing speculation of Fed rate cuts.

    The U.S. dollar hovered at its lowest level in over three years, further pressured by concerns over soaring U.S. government debt, especially as Trump’s sweeping tax and spending cut bill advanced through the Senate. Lawmakers are expected to vote on it as early as Monday.

    Regional currencies extended last week’s gains and were on track for strong performance in June amid persistent dollar weakness.

    Despite recent inflation data showing a rise in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed suggestions that a rate cut was imminent. However, Powell remains under pressure from Trump to lower interest rates, with speculation that Trump may soon announce Powell’s successor to weaken his position.

    The dollar also faced downward pressure due to concerns about rising U.S. government debt, linked to Trump’s advancing tax cut legislation.

    U.S. stock futures rose on Sunday evening after major Wall Street indices posted weekly gains, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq hitting record closing highs. Optimism was fueled by Fed rate cut expectations and hopes for trade agreements before Trump’s July 9 deadline.

    Last week, markets were uplifted by weaker-than-expected inflation data, which increased expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year. Sentiment was further improved by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered by Trump.

    Fed Chair Powell remained cautious last week, warning that inflation increases driven by tariffs are likely in upcoming data. Nevertheless, market expectations shifted toward multiple rate cuts this year.

    Meanwhile, oil prices suffered heavy losses last week as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced supply disruption risks in the Middle East.

    Oil was also pressured by fears of further production increases from OPEC+, which is set to meet on July 6. Reuters reported the group is likely to approve a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August, similar to increases seen in May, June, and July.

    OPEC+ had already started unwinding two years of production cuts earlier this year, partly to counter the economic impact of persistently low oil prices and partly to penalize overproducing members.

    Beyond OPEC+, attention is also on U.S. fuel demand, which typically rises during the summer travel season.

    Conclusion:

    Markets are navigating a complex landscape of easing geopolitical risks, potential trade breakthroughs, and shifting monetary policies. The coming weeks, especially the July 6 OPEC+ meeting and the July 9 tariff deadline, will be critical in determining the next big moves across commodities and currencies.

  • Gold Gains, Dollar Drops: Markets on Edge Amid Fed Speculations

    Gold Gains, Dollar Drops: Markets on Edge Amid Fed Speculations

    Trump’s Potential Move Against Powell Shakes Global Markets

    Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday, supported by the decline of the U.S. dollar and growing uncertainty in global markets. The surge followed reports suggesting that former U.S. President Donald Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as early as September or October. 

    These reports sparked widespread concerns about the future independence of the Federal Reserve, driving investors toward gold as a safe haven amid market turbulence. 

    The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for international buyers and boosting its appeal. 

    In testimony before a Senate committee on Wednesday, Powell noted that tariffs imposed by Trump could cause a temporary rise in prices but warned that persistent inflation risks required the Fed to act cautiously regarding further interest rate cuts. 

    Markets are now awaiting key U.S. economic data, including GDP figures expected later today and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Friday—both essential indicators that may influence the Fed’s next moves. 

    Geopolitical Scene: 

    On the geopolitical front, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to hold through Wednesday. Trump praised the swift resolution of the 12-day conflict during the NATO summit and stated his intention to demand that Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions in upcoming talks. 

    Asian currencies mostly rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar continued to slide to its lowest level in over three years. Trump maintained his pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and continued his criticism of Powell’s leadership. 

    A Wall Street Journal report that Trump was considering an early replacement for Powell further weakened the dollar and fueled bets that the Fed might cut rates as soon as July. 

    Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trading on Thursday, supported by a significant drop in U.S. crude inventories, boosting optimism about strong demand despite signs that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact. 

    The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude stocks dropped by 5.8 million barrels for the week ending June 20, far exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decrease. This followed a substantial drop of 11.5 million barrels the previous week, along with sharp declines in gasoline and distillate inventories. 

    The data indicated sustained fuel demand in the world’s largest consumer, especially as the busy summer travel season gains momentum. 

    Despite this, oil prices remained under pressure earlier in the week due to the ceasefire, which reduced the likelihood of near-term disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies. 

    Trump did not announce additional sanctions on Iran’s oil sector following the recent conflict, keeping regional oil supplies relatively stable. He also hinted at the possibility of easing sanctions to help rebuild the Islamic state, with nuclear talks scheduled for the following week. 

    Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz—a key oil shipping route—avoiding significant disruptions to oil shipments to Europe and Asia. 

    🔚 Conclusion: 

    The markets remain highly sensitive to political moves and monetary policy speculations. While gold benefits from uncertainty, the oil market shows cautious optimism as geopolitical risks seem temporarily contained. All eyes are now on upcoming U.S. economic data and Trump’s next steps regarding the Federal Reserve. 

  • Gold Recovers Slightly Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

    Gold Recovers Slightly Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

    Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering slightly after sharp losses in the previous session. The weak U.S. dollar provided some support, although the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced safe-haven demand. 

    Late Monday, President Trump announced a multi-stage ceasefire between Israel and Iran, urging both parties to strictly adhere to the agreement. 

    Despite the ceasefire announcement, concerns remain about the longevity of the truce. Just hours after the deal was made public, Trump took to social media, accusing both sides of violating their commitments. 

    Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical risks and uncertainty, came under pressure as the ceasefire held, but it remained supported by the weaker dollar and ongoing doubts about the ceasefire’s sustainability. 

    Media reports on Tuesday indicated that recent U.S. strikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, merely delaying its progress by a few months. 

    The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1% during Asian trading, hovering near its lowest level in a week. 

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated in his congressional testimony that multiple paths remain open for monetary policy, and the central bank needs more time to assess whether rising tariffs will lead to higher inflation. 

    Most Asian currencies, along with the dollar, traded in tight ranges on Wednesday as traders watched closely to see whether the fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold. 

    The Australian dollar also moved within a narrow range, despite weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data that reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). 

    Regional currencies gained some ground this week, while the U.S. dollar retreated following Trump’s ceasefire announcement. 

    The dollar also faced pressure from growing bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, even as Powell downplayed such a possibility. Trump continued to push for rate cuts on Tuesday. 

    The Australian dollar saw limited movement on Wednesday despite data showing that consumer price inflation in May grew far less than expected. The currency paused after two days of gains driven by improved risk sentiment. 

    Headline consumer price inflation fell to its lowest level in seven months, while core inflation, as measured by the trimmed mean CPI, dropped to its lowest in over three years. 

    Wednesday’s data showed continued disinflation in Australia, giving the RBA more room to pursue further rate cuts. The central bank has already cut rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in 2025 and remains data-dependent for future easing. 

    This follows much weaker-than-expected Australian employment data last week, signaling a cooling labor market. 

    Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded in Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering some losses from the previous two sessions. The market remained focused on whether the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold. 

    Oil prices were also supported by industry data showing another significant drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, suggesting rising demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer. 

    Data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by about 4.3 million barrels last week, far exceeding forecasts of a 0.6 million barrel decline. 

    This follows a massive 10.1 million barrel draw the week before, indicating a rapid tightening in U.S. oil supplies. 

    Such substantial inventory drawdowns typically precede similar trends in official stockpile data, which is due later today. 

    The sharp declines in U.S. inventories helped restore some confidence in fuel demand, which is expected to surge with the summer season. 

    Conclusion: 

    The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains the key focus in global markets, keeping traders cautious while commodities and currencies react to shifting geopolitical and economic signals. 

  • Trump Calls for Rate Cuts and Announces Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran 

    Trump Calls for Rate Cuts and Announces Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran 

    Markets React as Gold Drops Sharply 

    Trump Pushes for Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts 

    On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said interest rates in the United States should be reduced by at least two to three percentage points, continuing his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. 

    Trump’s comments came just hours before Powell’s scheduled testimony before Congress. 

    In a social media post, Trump stated, “I hope Congress will truly deal with this extremely stubborn and very stupid person. We will pay the price for his incompetence for many years to come,” referring to Powell’s reluctance to lower interest rates as Trump demands. 

    Trump compared the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank, claiming that “Europe has made 10 cuts, while we have made none.” 

    These fresh attacks come as Trump continues to push aggressively for rate cuts, which strongly contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. 

    Last week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with Powell warning that Trump’s tariffs could increase inflation, giving the Fed less reason to cut rates further. 

    The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a total of 1% in 2024, but has signaled a highly cautious approach for potential cuts in 2025 and 2026. 

    Ceasefire Announced Between Israel and Iran 

    Late Monday, President Trump announced a full ceasefire between Israel and Iran, indicating a potential end to the 12-day conflict. 

    Gold prices fell more than 1% during Asian trading on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions eased following the ceasefire announcement. 

    Reports confirmed that Iran accepted the truce; however, Iran’s Foreign Minister warned the ceasefire would only hold if Israel halts its military operations. 

    This announcement came shortly after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear sites, to which Tehran responded on Monday by launching missile attacks on a U.S. airbase in Qatar. 

    Markets welcomed the ceasefire, with U.S. stock futures rising, oil prices dropping more than 3%, and fears of supply disruptions easing. 

    Investors shifted away from safe-haven assets like gold and moved toward stocks and higher-risk assets. 

    Despite some support from a weaker dollar, investors remained cautious ahead of Jerome Powell’s two-day testimony before Congress starting Tuesday. 

    Market Reactions: 

    • Most Asian currencies gained on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar weakened following the ceasefire announcement between the U.S., Iran, and Israel. 
    • Risk sentiment remained somewhat limited as traders awaited official confirmation from both Israel and Iran. 
    • Iran reportedly launched another missile attack on Israel early Tuesday, shortly before the expected start of the ceasefire. 
    • Regional currencies were also supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates as soon as July, putting additional pressure on the dollar. 

    Conclusion: 

    The markets remain on edge amid geopolitical shifts and increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. While the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has calmed short-term fears, traders are now focusing on Powell’s testimony and upcoming monetary policy decisions.